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Resilience metrics to guide back-up investments in the power system during extreme weather

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply, leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. Here we use an approach based on shadow prices to identify periods of elevated stress called system-defining events and analyse their impact on the power system. By classifying different types of system-defining events, we identify challenges to power system operation and planning. Crucially, we find the need for sufficient resilience back-up (power) capacities whose financial viability is precarious owing to weather variability and weather-induced risk. Furthermore, we disentangle short- and long-term resilience challenges (from multi-day to annual scale) with distinct metrics and stress tests to incorporate both into future energy modelling assessments. Our methodology and implementation in an open energy system model (PyPSA-Eur) can be re-applied to other systems and help researchers and policymakers in building more resilient and adequate energy systems.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Grochowicz A, Bloomfield HC, Victoria M

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Nature Sustainability

Year: 2026

Pages: Epub ahead of print

Online publication date: 14/07/2026

Acceptance date: 16/06/2026

Date deposited: 27/07/2026

ISSN (electronic): 2398-9629

Publisher: Nature

URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01897-6

DOI: 10.1038/s41893-026-01897-6

ePrints DOI: 10.57711/yc3q-2p23

Data Access Statement: All data used are open (various licenses). Intermediate data are available via Zenodo at https://zenodo.org/records/20590389 (ref. 62).

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