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Enhancing liver fibrosis measurement: Deep learning and uncertainty analysis across multi-center cohorts

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Jess Dyson

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

© 2026 The Authors. Digital pathology enables large multi-center studies of histological specimens, but differences in staining protocols and slide quality can compromise the comparability of quantitative results. We analyzed 686 PicroSirius Red-stained liver biopsies from 4 independent cohorts spanning more than 20 clinical sites to assess how stain variability affects automated fibrosis quantification and model uncertainty. An U-Net ensemble was trained to segment collagen and to estimate pixel- and tile-level predictive uncertainty. Across markedly heterogeneous staining conditions, the ensemble achieved strong segmentation performance (Dice 0.83–0.90) and produced informative uncertainty maps that identified artifacts and out-of-distribution regions. Epistemic uncertainty values were typically below 0.002, providing a practical criterion for flagging unreliable predictions. Our results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty estimation complements stain-standardization efforts by quantifying prediction confidence directly from model outputs, improving the reliability and interpretability of collagen proportionate-area measurements across multi-center datasets. This framework supports more trustworthy and reproducible digital-pathology workflows for fibrosis assessment and other histological applications.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Wojciechowska M, Malacrino S, Windell D, Culver EL, Dyson JK, Rittscher J

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Journal of Pathology Informatics

Year: 2026

Volume: 21

Print publication date: 01/04/2026

Online publication date: 20/03/2026

Acceptance date: 18/03/2026

Date deposited: 06/05/2026

ISSN (print): 2229-5089

ISSN (electronic): 2153-3539

Publisher: Elsevier BV

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpi.2026.100653

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpi.2026.100653

Data Access Statement: The source code for the slide color analysis tool is available under appendix.


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
LiverNorth
NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre
NIHR Oxford BRC
NIHR Rare Diseases Translational Research Collaboration
Wellcome Trust Core Award Grant Number 203141/Z/16/Z

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