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Using Extreme Value Theory to evaluate the leading pedestrian interval road safety intervention.

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Nicola Hewett, Dr Lee FawcettORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world's roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.3 million people die each year as a result of road traffic collisions. Current practice for treating collision hotspots is almost always reactive: once a threshold level of collisions has been overtopped during some pre-determined observation period, treatment is applied (e.g., road safety cameras). Traffic collisions are rare, so prolonged observation periods are necessary. However, traffic conflicts are more frequent and are a margin of the social cost; hence, traffic conflict before/after studies can be conducted over shorter time periods. We investigate the effect of implementing the leading pedestrian interval treatment at signalised intersections as a safety intervention in a city in north America. Pedestrian-vehicle traffic conflict data were collected from treatment and control sites during the before and after periods. We implement a before/after study on post-encroachment times (PETs) where small PET values denote ‘near-misses’.Hence, extreme value theory is employed to model extremes of our PET processes, with adjustments to the usual modelling framework to account for temporal dependence and treatment effects.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Hewett NK, Fawcett L, Golightly AG, Thorpe N

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Stat

Year: 2024

Volume: 13

Issue: 2

Print publication date: 01/06/2024

Online publication date: 18/04/2024

Acceptance date: 01/04/2024

Date deposited: 29/04/2024

ISSN (print): 2049-1573

ISSN (electronic): 2049-1573

Publisher: Wiley

URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sta4.676

DOI: 10.1002/sta4.676

Data Access Statement: Research data are not shared.

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