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Validation of long-term survival prediction for scheduled abdominal aortic aneurysm repair with an independent calculator using only pre-operative variables

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Gerard Danjoux, Dr Christopher Snowden

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Abstract

© 2015 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland. We observed survival after scheduled repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm in 1096 patients for a median (IQR [range]) of 3.0 (1.5-5.8 [0-15]) years: 943 patients had complete data, 250 of whom died. We compared discrimination and calibration of an external model with the Kaplan-Meier model generated from the study data. Integrated Brier misclassification scores for both models at 1-5 postoperative years were 0.04, 0.08, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.16, respectively. Harrel's concordance index at 1-5 postoperative years was 0.73, 0.71, 0.68, 0.67 and 0.66, respectively. Groups with median 5-year predicted mortality of 40% (n = 251), 18% (n = 414) and 8% (n = 164) had lower observed mortality than 114 patients with 70% predicted mortality, hazard ratio (95% CI): 0.58 (0.37-0.76), p = 0.0031; 0.30 (0.19-0.48), p = 1.7 × 10^-12 and 0.19 (0.13-0.27), p = 1.3 × 10^-10, respectively, test for trend p = 5.6 × 10^-15. Survival predicted by the external calculator was similar to the Kaplan-Meier estimate.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Carlisle JB, Danjoux G, Kerr K, Snowden C, Swart M

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Anaesthesia

Year: 2015

Volume: 70

Issue: 6

Pages: 654-665

Print publication date: 01/06/2015

Online publication date: 10/05/2015

Acceptance date: 05/02/2015

ISSN (print): 0003-2409

ISSN (electronic): 1365-2044

Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/anae.13061

DOI: 10.1111/anae.13061

PubMed id: 25959175

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