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The UK pig cycle: a spectral analysis

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Philip Dawson

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Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to identify cyclical patterns in the prices and production of UK pigmeat, 1989-2008. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the form of spectral analysis. Findings - Results show evidence of both annual and seasonal cycles, but there is little evidence of a three-to-four-year cycle. The likely cause of the latter's absence is increasing imports and a changing market structure. Practical implications - Conventional wisdom is that the traditional pig cycle is of three-to-four years' duration and the UK's pig policy is based partly on its existence and that the design and implementation of UK pig policy are predicated on the basis of a traditional cycle is misplaced. Originality/value - No previous or recent empirical investigation of the UK pig cycle exists, perhaps because its existence is considered to be axiomatic.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Dawson PJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: British Food Journal

Year: 2009

Volume: 111

Issue: 11

Pages: 1237-1247

Print publication date: 01/01/2009

ISSN (print): 0007-070X

ISSN (electronic): 1758-4108

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00070700911001059

DOI: 10.1108/00070700911001059

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