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Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program: an independent assessment

Lookup NU author(s): Justin Nissen, Dr Paul Jones

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Abstract

Using an independent data set, the utility of the Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program was investigated in terms of possible frequency of use and reliability of outcome prediction in patients with severe head injury, or haematoma requiring evacuation, or coma lasting 6 hours or more, in whom outcome had been reliably assessed at 6 to 24 months after injury. Predictions were calculated on admission, before evacuation of a haematoma, or 24 hours, 3 days, and 7 days after onset of coma lasting 6 hours or more. Three hundred and twenty four patients provided 426 predictions which were possible in 76%, 97%, 19%, 34%, and 53% of patients on admission, before operation, 24 hours, 3 days, and 7 days respectively. Major reasons for non-feasible predictions were that patients were paralysed/ventilated as part of resuscitation or management. Overall, 75.8% of predictions were correct, 14.6% were pessimistic (outcome better than predicted), and 9.6% optimistic (outcome worse than predicted). Of 197 patients (267 predictions) whose eventual outcome was good or moderate, 84.3% of predictions were correct. For death or vegetative survival (96 patients with 110 predictions), 83.6% of predictions were correct but for severe disability (31 patients with 49 predictions), only 12.2% were correctly predicted. The utility of the Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program compares favourably with other outcome prediction algorithms for patients with head injury.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Nissen JJ, Jones PA, Signorini DF, Murray LS, Teasdale GM, Miller JD

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry

Year: 1999

Volume: 67

Issue: 6

Pages: 796-799

Print publication date: 01/12/1999

ISSN (print): 0022-3050

ISSN (electronic): 1468-330X

Publisher: BMJ Group

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jnnp.67.6.796

DOI: 10.1136/jnnp.67.6.796

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